Episode 383: My Camera Predictions for 2024

Show Transcript

Greetings, you’re listening to the Liam Photography Podcast, I’m your host Liam Douglas and this is Episode 383 for Thursday December 28, 2023. In today’s episode I am giving you my predictions for cameras we’ll see in 2024 and I think the new year will be an interesting one for some camera makers and kind of Meh for others. Let’s start out this list with Canon.

Canon EOS R1

I am fairly certain that in 2024 we will finally see the release of Canon’s new flagship sports camera in the release of the EOS R1. Now many people are speculating that the R1 will have an insanely large sensor to compete with Sony and Nikon with their 50 and 61MP sensors, but I disagree. Canon has never put a large sensor in their flagship bodies with the previous DSLR versions coming with a 20.1MP sensor.

Now is it possible they will bump the sensor up to say 24MP like the R3? Possibly, but I don’t think so. I am thinking they will stick with the 20.1MP sensor size for the superior low light capabilities and that it will be a stacked sensor like in the R3.

I am predicting that it will probably have an insane FPS of maybe 60 or higher and I think it might be possible that it will also have a Global Shutter as a flagship sports body is where that would be the most valuable for shooters of pro sports like the Olympics, MLB, NHL, NFL, NBA and of course motorsports such as Super bike racing, NASCAR and IMSA racing as well.

It may be pie in the sky thinking but I am also fairly certain that the R1 will have dual CFExpress Type B card slots to better accommodate the high FPS as well as the general demands of pro sports shooting. It would be a big move on Canon’s part but they need to move in that direction so they aren’t left in the dust by Sony and Nikon. In 2024 Canon cannot afford to still be using old, outdated memory card technology in their new Mirrorless flagship camera or they could lose market share and fall to number 2 in the camera market, giving up their number 1 title to Sony.

The R1 will also feature 5-axis IBIS of course and possibly the RJ45 port being upgraded to 1Gb. The R3 and all previous Canon flagships have all maxed out at 100Mbps for their LAN connection and I believe Canon will move to 1Gb with their first Mirrorless flagship. The Battery will most likely be the same as the R3, which uses the LP-E19 Lithium-ion battery, but they could throw us a curveball and release a new battery with the R1. For years Canon would have a wide variety of battery models and then when they started doing Mirrorless full frame, they moved to using the same LP-E6N and NH batteries so they had fewer battery types to manufacture, which is smart and makes their consumers happy as well, so I predict they will stick with the LP-E19 battery for the R1.

EOS R5II

In 2024 I fully expect Canon to release their new R5II camera to update that model and since they originally released the R5 and R6 at the same time and yet they only updated the R6 to the R6II at this time. But like the R6II I believe the R5II will get a slightly larger resolution sensor, moving from 45 to 50MP and I also am fairly certain they will also bump the FPS from 20 to 40 as they did in the R6II.

The R5II should also sport more AF subjection recognition modes similar to the R6II and it will also have a little more in the video specs as well, although with the original already have 8K video, I believe any video updates will be incremental at best.

The one major thing that would be great in the R5II would be to move this camera body over to dual CFExpress Type B cards and ditch the SD slot as the second slot all together. Having dual CFExpress Type B would make it a more compelling camera for those hybrid shooters who shoot a lot of stills and video both and make it more in line with it’s competitors. With the R5II Canon has to be careful what all they add to this body as they don’t want to take sales away from their R5C model so no massive video capabilities will be added to the R5II.

I do however also believe that we could see the release of the RF35mm F/1.2 L lens along side the R5II as none of the big three makers have released a 35mm F/1.2 lens and I personally think Canon will be the first to do so. They could possibly announce the RF35mm along side the R1 but it would make sense to release it along side the R5II as most of your pro sports shooters are using telephoto lenses and Canon already has the strongest line of RF telephoto lenses, beating out both Sony and Nikon there. The RF35mm F/1.2 L would also finish rounding out Canon’s F/1.2 L prime line up since they already have their RF50mm F/1.2 and RF85mm F/1.2 L primes already on the market.

EOS R5S/r

The third and final major camera release I believe we will see in 2024 from Canon will be the most anticipated replacement for their old EOS 5D/s and 5D/sR and that will be their new monster landscape camera. I am not certain if they will go with the R5S or R5S/r and I don’t believe they will release two models like they did back in the DSLR days.

This new heavyweight in the landscape market will most likely sport a 100MP sensor as Canon developed a 100MP sensor a couple years ago and have yet to put it into a camera body. Also, keep in mind that the original R5S and R5S/r were not super fast cameras with high FPS since they were both meant for more high resolution landscapes and studio portrait work so don’t expect 40 or 60fps for this model either.

I also expect the Dynamic Range to be significant on this model as it was on it’s DSLR predecessor, so I would not be shocked to find out that this camera will have like  18 stops of Dynamic Range making it a killer camera for stills photography. The original wasn’t as high in DR as the 5DMKIII but I believe Canon will ramp things up for this new camera and it will be a major camera for those that only shoot landscapes and studio work as their main bread and butter photography. I would also expect Canon to stick with dual SD cards slots on this model as the higher speeds of CFExpress are not really warranted.

Sony A1 MKII

2024 will be the year that Sony refreshes their flagship camera body with the release of their A1 MKII. Since Sony released their A9 MKIII in 2023 we can expect them to release the A1 MKII in 2024 as their next logical move. This will be significant for Sony as they will have not only beaten Canon to the flagship Mirrorless body market but they will have their second flagship on the market when Canon is only finally releasing their first in 2024.

Some would argue that the R3 is a flagship body and hits hard against the A1, but Canon has said it is NOT a flagship body even though it hits all the tones of one. For their part, I think Sony will stick with the 50MP sensor in the A1 MKII, but they will up the FPS a lot as I am assuming they will put their new Global Shutter in their flagship cameras second generation. The new body will be capable of 120fps and the insanely high flash sync speeds of the A9 MKIII, which will continue to punish Nikon’s Z9 flagship and cement its position as one of the most dominant flagship bodies ever made. The A1 MKII is also in my opinion the reason Canon will have a Global Shutter in their R1 flagship as Canon cannot afford to give up its number 1 slot in the camera world.

I also believe Sony will move away from the dual CFExpress Type A cards of it’s original A1 and finally release their proper flagship camera with dual CFExpress Type B card slots. This would be huge as the Type B cards are cheaper with more than double the speed of the Type A cards which will make Sony shooters happier and have less impact on their wallets.

Sony a7s IV

The second major camera announcement I predict from Sony in 2024 is the release of their a7S IV to replace the existing a7s III. This new camera will still have the 24MP sensor of the s III but will have more in the video specs with 4K 60p and I am also predicting 1080P at 240fps. The video modes will of course use the full width of the sensor and this camera will have the same 15 stops of Dynamic Range.

Being that the a7s line is Sony’s big time video shooting camera they will make sure that this new generation will also have their new AI chip for even better AF performance and improvements making those film makers shooting with this line of camera very happy with the performance of this latest model.

When it comes to the stills performance, even though this is primarily a video camera I believe that Sony will up the FPS again from the current 10 on the s III to 14 on the new s IV to bump up that side of the camera as well. I also imagine that Sony will tweak the design a bit again as they did going from the II to the III and of course the IV will still use Sony’s much better NP-FZ100 battery as well as I could not see them going back to the poor performing NP-FW50. I also wouldn’t be surprised if they release a revamped version of the FZ100 battery with even better performance when shooting video with this new body.

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Nikon Z6 III & Z7 III

In 2024 I don’t predict any massive camera releases from Nikon since they already have their flagship Z9 on the market and they have already released the mini Z9 in the Z8 body. The two cameras that I predict that Nikon will release are the refreshes for their Z6 and Z7 lines.

The new Z6 III will sport the same sensor as it’s predecessor so nothing major there with still using the 25MP sensor. I believe that Nikon will improve the AF system in these two new bodies and also that they will bump up the FPS from the current 14fps to 16fps or maybe even 18fps.

The Z7 III is of course sticking with it’s current 46MP sensor as the Z7 II and just bumping the FPS from 10 to 12 or maybe even 14fps. Both cameras will finally move from CFExpress Type B in slot 1 and SD for slot 2 to a dual CFExpress Type B for it’s local storage which will be a nice improvement for Nikon shooters.

I don’t predict too many massive changes to these two camera bodies because Nikon already pissed off a lot of their Z9 owners by releasing the Z8 which is basically a Z9 in a smaller form factor and I am hoping that they blow back they got on the Z8 has gotten their attention and they don’t want to alienate their Z9 owners further by putting too much in these lower end bodies. Now don’t get me wrong I am not saying that the Z6 and Z7 lines are bad cameras, just that if Nikon is smart they will continue to stick with incremental changes to these two camera lines.

Fujifilm x100R

2024 I predict to be a bit of a banner years for Fujifilm when it comes to camera bodies being released. The first new body that I predict will be the replacement for the x100V and I am calling it the x100R with the R standing for Roku which is Japanese for the number 6. The camera will sport the same perfected 23mm F/2 lens but I am thinking they might make it better weather sealed, no longer needing the adapter to make it weather sealed.

I believe the sensor will remain the current 26MP size but there is a remote chance they will update it to the newer 26MP stacked model used in the X-H2S. I am not certain they will do that but they will absolutely change the processor to the new 5th generation one used in the X-S20. I am not expecting a ton of changes for this new generation of the x100 line as it is already a perfect camera and there just isn’t much more Fujifilm can do it improve it so I don’t seem massive changes other than possibly the stacked sensor and a more weather sealed lens.

Fujifilm X-Pro4

The next camera I predict for 2024 is the much anticipated X-Pro4, the next in the X-pro line and this one will excite a lot of people. I am predicting the same size 26MP sensor for the X-Pro4 with the possibility is could be the new 5th generation stacked sensor from the X-H2S. I don’t expect much in the way of a FPS bump unless Fujifilm decides to give it 12-14fps, but I am not expecting it. This camera is a niche camera for street photography so high FPS is not really needed.

The X-Pro4 will of course have the new 5th generation processor like the X-H line and the X-T5 and X-S20 so it will have the faster and more accurate AF system that has been so popular in the previously mentioned models. This new, better AF performance will move the X-Pro line into a better position to it’s competitors when it comes to overall AF performance, just like the new x100r.

I am expecting it to go back to the original rear LCD from the X-Pro2 since a lot of people did’t like the hidden rear LCD on the X-Pro3, although it is one of the reasons I personally love that camera the most. That film simulation window on the back that harkens back to the film days when we put the flap from our film box on the back of the camera to remind us what ISO speed film we were using was so handy and having a “digital film” camera in the X-Pro3 just makes it more nostalgic for many of us that shoot with the X-Pro3. This camera will also most likely get 4K 60P video as well.

Fujifilm X-E5

The third camera body that I predict for 2024 is the next in the X-E line and that is the X-E5. I had thought that it was possible Fujifilm was ending this line but now I am not so sure. The X-E has been a really popular line with its small, compact form factor making it a fantastic travel/vacation camera and yet you can still use any XF lens on it.

The the X-E5 I predict that Fujifilm will stay with the 26MP X-Trans IV sensor but will most likely add the 5th generation processor to improve AF performance. I also believe they might bump the video features to include 4K 60p as in the X-Pro4. One of the new items for the X-E5 will be that Fujifilm will finally upgrade the memory card slot from UHS-I to UHS-II for its single card slot.

If you are an X-E owner that has been clamoring for a upgraded battery for the X-E5, I wouldn’t hold my breath as it just doesn’t make sense for Fujifilm to make the body bigger for the better NP-W235 like the X-T line has. If they are not giving the X-Pro4 the newer, bigger battery then there is no way they are giving it to the X-E5. One of the main selling points of the X-E and X-Pro line are the thin designs and adding more bulk for the battery just doesn’t make a lot of sense and would increase the cost of both bodies as well.

Fujifilm GFX 50S III

With as fast as Fujifilm has been cranking out their Medium Format line of Mirrorless cameras I am predicting they will most likely release the third in the 50S line with the GFX 50S III. Being it’s Medium Format I am not expecting a LOT in the way of improvements save for hopefully a new 50.1MP sensor as the current one is very long in the tooth having been used in the 50S, the 50S II and the GFX 50R. 

The camera will of course get their new 5th generation processor so it will have improved AF performance to an extent unless they go all out and make this model with their newer Phase Detect AF from the GFX100 line but that is a bit of a stretch. So far none of the GFX 50 line of cameras has had anything but Contrast Detect AF so they might not change that for the 50S III.

With the new sensor Fujifilm could easily also include more than the current 117 focus points and make things better that way and there is also a chance they will bump the FPS back to 5 from the current 3, since the original GFX 50S had 5fps and then they went backwards with the 50S II lowering the FPS to 3 so there is a chance they might raise it back up in the 50S III but with it being primarily a landscape/studio camera no guarantee on that.

Fujifilm GFX 50R II

This last camera entry on my list is NOT a prediction as I am fairly certain Fujifilm has killed the 50R line since it didn’t sell as well as the 50S or 50S II. Fujifilm has also pretty much said there will be no more in the 50R line, but that could change in the future. I would love to see a new 50R II with IBIS, a new 50.1MP sensor and 5th gen processor with Phase Detect AF and more focus points, but alas I am not getting that wish anytime soon.

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